What are the odds of "Yes" for "ChatGPT integration with iPhone before October?"?

Currently 0% probability according to Polymarket prediction market traders.

What are the odds of "No" for "ChatGPT integration with iPhone before October?"?

Currently 100% probability according to Polymarket prediction market traders.

ChatGPT integration with iPhone before October?

Current odds

Live · updates every 20s

YES

PRICE $0.00 · IMPLIED 0%▸ BUY YES

100%

PRICE $1.00 · IMPLIED 100%▸ BUY NO

Price history

OPEN 24H

0.01

Yes

HIGH 24H

0.02

at 11:42 ET

LOW 24H

0.01

at 02:18 ET

CHANGE

+0.04

+7.0% on Yes

Market stats

Polymarket · CLOB

24H VOLUME

—

Past 24 hours

TOTAL VOLUME

$77k

Since creation

LIQUIDITY

—

Available to trade

Recent trades

Last 10 fills · live

TIME	SIDE	PRICE	SIZE	VALUE	TRADER

About this market

Context

On June 10 Apple announced at its developer conference that it would integrate ChatGPT into its devices on iOS 18 (see https://www.theverge.com/2024/6/10/24174786/apple-openai-partnership-chatgpt-wwdc). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple integrates ChatGPT (or another OpenAI large language model product) into the iPhone by September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes"; only the release of the described integration will trigger a "Yes" resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and OpenAI, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.

FAQ

Resolution & trading

How is this market resolved?+

The market resolves based on the official outcome as verified by the UMA Optimistic Oracle.

When does this market close?+

Trading closes at Sep 30, 2024 · 12:00 PM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.

What are the possible outcomes?+

The possible outcomes are: Yes (0%), No (100%). Each contract pays out $1 if correct, $0 otherwise.

What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+

If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.

How do I trade on Polymarket?+

You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price. All settlements are in USDC.