YES
0%
PRICE $0.00 · IMPLIED 0%▸ BUY YES
MIDDLE EAST
Israel ground offensive in Rafah by April 30?
RESOLVESApr 30, 2024 · 12:00 PM UTC
CONTRACT0x0523…b40d
Current odds
Live · updates every 20sNO
100%
PRICE $1.00 · IMPLIED 100%▸ BUY NO
Price history
OPEN 24H
0.01
Yes
HIGH 24H
0.02
at 11:42 ET
LOW 24H
0.01
at 02:18 ET
CHANGE
+0.04
+7.0% on Yes
Market stats
Polymarket · CLOB24H VOLUME
—
Past 24 hours
TOTAL VOLUME
$129k
Since creation
LIQUIDITY
—
Available to trade
Recent trades
Last 10 fills · live| TIME | SIDE | PRICE | SIZE | VALUE | TRADER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
About this market
ContextThis market will resolve to “Yes” if by April 30, 2024, 11:59 PM Palestine Standard Time (UTC +2), the New York Times or WSJ reports that Israel has initiated a ground offensive within Rafah. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Reports of small raids or special operations will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source of this market will be reporting from the New York Times or the Wall Street Journal.
How trading works
Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.
Resolution
Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.
FAQ
Resolution & tradingHow is this market resolved?+
The market resolves based on the official outcome as verified by the UMA Optimistic Oracle.
When does this market close?+
Trading closes at Apr 30, 2024 · 12:00 PM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.
What are the possible outcomes?+
The possible outcomes are: Yes (0%), No (100%). Each contract pays out $1 if correct, $0 otherwise.
What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+
If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.
How do I trade on Polymarket?+
You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price. All settlements are in USDC.