What are the odds of "Packy" for "Packy vs Harry: TCS London Marathon - who beats their time by more?"?

Currently 100% probability according to Polymarket prediction market traders.

What are the odds of "Harry" for "Packy vs Harry: TCS London Marathon - who beats their time by more?"?

Currently 0% probability according to Polymarket prediction market traders.

Packy vs Harry: TCS London Marathon - who beats their time by more?

Current odds

Live · updates every 20s

PACKY

100%

PRICE $1.00 · IMPLIED 100%▸ BUY PACKY

HARRY

PRICE $0.00 · IMPLIED 0%▸ BUY HARRY

Price history

OPEN 24H

0.96

Packy

HIGH 24H

0.99

at 11:42 ET

LOW 24H

0.93

at 02:18 ET

CHANGE

+0.04

+7.0% on Packy

Market stats

Polymarket · CLOB

24H VOLUME

—

Past 24 hours

TOTAL VOLUME

$2k

Since creation

LIQUIDITY

—

Available to trade

Recent trades

Last 10 fills · live

TIME	SIDE	PRICE	SIZE	VALUE	TRADER

About this market

Context

This market will resolve to the runner who has a better marathon time relative to their goal in the 2024 TCS London Marathon. Packy McCormick's goal time is 2:57. Harry Stebbings's goal time is 3:20. For example, if Packy got 2:55 and Harry got 3:15, the market would resolve to "Harry" since he beat his goal by 5 minutes whereas Packy only beat his goal by 2 minutes. If the 2024 TCS London Marathon is cancelled or delayed until after October 31 2024 ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If one runner announces they will not participate, this market will resolve to the other runner.

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.

FAQ

Resolution & trading

How is this market resolved?+

The market resolves based on the official outcome as verified by the UMA Optimistic Oracle.

When does this market close?+

Trading closes at Apr 21, 2024 · 12:00 AM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.

What are the possible outcomes?+

The possible outcomes are: Packy (100%), Harry (0%). Each contract pays out $1 if correct, $0 otherwise.

What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+

If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.

How do I trade on Polymarket?+

You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price. All settlements are in USDC.