Prediction HFT
POWELL
Powell says "unemployment" 5+ times in FOMC statement?

Powell says "unemployment" 5+ times in FOMC statement?

RESOLVESSep 18, 2024 · 12:00 PM UTC

Current odds

Live · updates every 20s

Price history

80¢65¢50¢35¢20¢00:0006:0012:0018:00NOWYESNO
OPEN 24H
0.01
Yes
HIGH 24H
0.02
at 11:42 ET
LOW 24H
0.01
at 02:18 ET
CHANGE
+0.04
+7.0% on Yes

Market stats

Polymarket · CLOB
24H VOLUME
Past 24 hours
TOTAL VOLUME
$38k
Since creation
LIQUIDITY
Available to trade

Recent trades

Last 10 fills · live
TIMESIDEPRICESIZEVALUETRADER

About this market

Context

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on September 18 at 2:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says "unemployment" 5 or more times during the FOMC Introductory Statement. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that this market only pertains to his Introductory Statement. Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "unemployment" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the state of being unemployed, and/or the rate of such unemployment. If no such statement happens by September 18, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Introductory Statement.

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.

FAQ

Resolution & trading
How is this market resolved?+
The market resolves based on the official outcome as verified by the UMA Optimistic Oracle.
When does this market close?+
Trading closes at Sep 18, 2024 · 12:00 PM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.
What are the possible outcomes?+
The possible outcomes are: Yes (0%), No (100%). Each contract pays out $1 if correct, $0 otherwise.
What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+
If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.
How do I trade on Polymarket?+
You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price. All settlements are in USDC.