What are the odds of "Yes" for "Tesla sells bitcoin in October?"?

Currently 0% probability according to Polymarket prediction market traders.

What are the odds of "No" for "Tesla sells bitcoin in October?"?

Currently 100% probability according to Polymarket prediction market traders.

Tesla sells bitcoin in October?

Current odds

Live · updates every 20s

YES

PRICE $0.00 · IMPLIED 0%▸ BUY YES

100%

PRICE $1.00 · IMPLIED 100%▸ BUY NO

Price history

OPEN 24H

0.01

Yes

HIGH 24H

0.02

at 11:42 ET

LOW 24H

0.01

at 02:18 ET

CHANGE

+0.04

+7.0% on Yes

Market stats

Polymarket · CLOB

24H VOLUME

—

Past 24 hours

TOTAL VOLUME

$83k

Since creation

LIQUIDITY

—

Available to trade

Recent trades

Last 10 fills · live

TIME	SIDE	PRICE	SIZE	VALUE	TRADER

About this market

Context

On October 15, 2024, Tesla made its first Bitcoin transaction in 2 years. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1846298407867990344 This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla is confirmed to have sold any of its Bitcoin between October 14 and October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Moving Bitcoin alone will not count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.

FAQ

Resolution & trading

How is this market resolved?+

The market resolves based on the official outcome as verified by the UMA Optimistic Oracle.

When does this market close?+

Trading closes at Oct 31, 2024 · 12:00 PM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.

What are the possible outcomes?+

The possible outcomes are: Yes (0%), No (100%). Each contract pays out $1 if correct, $0 otherwise.

What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+

If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.

How do I trade on Polymarket?+

You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price. All settlements are in USDC.