US military action on Yemen before July?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States initiates a military action on Yemeni soil, airspace, or maritime territory between May 27 and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US on Yemeni soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Yemeni soil is subject to an US missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. U.S. intelligence, logistical support, or targeting assistance for another country’s attack on Yemen will not qualify. Only direct U.S. use of force on Yemeni territory counts. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.