YES
100%
PRICE $1.00 · IMPLIED 100%▸ BUY YES
CLIMATE & WEATHER
Will 2024 have the hottest April on record?
Current odds
Live · updates every 20sNO
0%
PRICE $0.00 · IMPLIED 0%▸ BUY NO
Price history
OPEN 24H
0.96
Yes
HIGH 24H
0.99
at 11:42 ET
LOW 24H
0.93
at 02:18 ET
CHANGE
+0.04
+7.0% on Yes
Market stats
Polymarket · CLOB24H VOLUME
—
Past 24 hours
TOTAL VOLUME
$66k
Since creation
LIQUIDITY
—
Available to trade
Recent trades
Last 10 fills · live| TIME | SIDE | PRICE | SIZE | VALUE | TRADER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Resolution rules
From Polymarkethttps://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
ORACLEUMA Optimistic
DISPUTE PERIOD2 hours
About this market
ContextThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2024 shows an increase greater than that of any prior April when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At the point the data for April 2024 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for April, and if 2024 April is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to "Yes." Note: If 2024 April is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2024 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
How trading works
Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.
Resolution
Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.
FAQ
Resolution & tradingHow is this market resolved?+
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
When does this market close?+
Trading closes at Apr 30, 2024 · 12:00 PM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.
What are the possible outcomes?+
The possible outcomes are: Yes (100%), No (0%). Each contract pays out $1 if correct, $0 otherwise.
What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+
If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.
How do I trade on Polymarket?+
You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price. All settlements are in USDC.