Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before September?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike against an oil or gas facility, inclusive of all oil rigs, refineries, or other oil/gas infrastructure located on the soil or within the maritime territory of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE), between June 21 and August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes and aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Iranian missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory based on a consensus of credible reporting will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not qualify. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.