Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight in 2024?

The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic clock face that represents the likelihood of a man-made global catastrophe, maintained since 1947 by the members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The closer the clock is set to midnight, the closer the scientists believe the world is to global disaster. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Doomsday Clock is set closer to midnight (i.e. closer than 90 seconds to midnight, see https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/#nav_menu) during the yearly meeting of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists scheduled for January 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the Doomsday Clock setting is delayed this market's resolution may be delayed until the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' 2024 release is published. If no release is published by December 31, 2024 ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be information released by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

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Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.