Will the Omicron variant be marked as a Variant Of High Consequence by the CDC before 2022?

Current odds

Live · updates every 20s

YES

PRICE $0.00 · IMPLIED 0%▸ BUY YES

100%

PRICE $1.00 · IMPLIED 100%▸ BUY NO

Price history

OPEN 24H

0.01

Yes

HIGH 24H

0.02

at 11:42 ET

LOW 24H

0.01

at 02:18 ET

CHANGE

+0.04

+7.0% on Yes

Market stats

Polymarket · CLOB

24H VOLUME

Past 24 hours

TOTAL VOLUME

$58k

Since creation

LIQUIDITY

$150

Available to trade

Recent trades

Last 10 fills · live

TIME	SIDE	PRICE	SIZE	VALUE	TRADER

Resolution rules

From Polymarket

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html

ORACLEUMA Optimistic

DISPUTE PERIOD2 hours

About this market

Context

This is a market on if the CDC will denote variant B.1.1.529 (“Omicron”) under the heading Variant of High Consequence (VOHC) on its website before January 1, 2022, 12:00:01 AM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the resolution source shows B.1.1.529, "Omicron" or any label which references the Omicron variant in the VOHC category at any point before the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. The resolution for this market is https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html which at the time of this market's inception states "Currently, there are no SARS-CoV-2 variants that rise to the level of high consequence." Other CDC links may be used if the aforementioned link changes.

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.

FAQ

Resolution & trading

How is this market resolved?+

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html

When does this market close?+

Trading closes at Jan 1, 2022 · 12:00 AM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.

What are the possible outcomes?+

The possible outcomes are: Yes (0%), No (100%). Each contract pays out $1 if correct, $0 otherwise.

What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+

If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.

How do I trade on Polymarket?+

You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price. All settlements are in USDC.