Will Ukraine agree to pay back U.S. aid before July?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States and Ukraine agree to any deal between February 20 and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that involves Ukraine agreeing to provide economic compensation to the U.S. for the repayment of aid. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes, but is not limited to, agreements related to the repayment of aid through mineral rights, rights to future profits, licenses, financial commitments, or any other form of economic compensation reported as repayment for aid by a consensus of credible reporting. An announcement of a deal will qualify regardless of if/when the deal is enacted. An agreement for Ukraine to purchase U.S. goods, including military equipment, will not qualify unless it explicitly described as repayment for aid. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US and Ukraine.

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Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.