YES
0%
PRICE $0.00 · IMPLIED 0%▸ BUY YES
RECURRING
Trump positive favorability on March 1?
RESOLVESMar 1, 2025 · 12:00 PM UTC
CONTRACT0x4a80…a4b7
Current odds
Live · updates every 20sNO
100%
PRICE $1.00 · IMPLIED 100%▸ BUY NO
Price history
OPEN 24H
0.01
Yes
HIGH 24H
0.02
at 11:42 ET
LOW 24H
0.01
at 02:18 ET
CHANGE
+0.04
+7.0% on Yes
Market stats
Polymarket · CLOB24H VOLUME
—
Past 24 hours
TOTAL VOLUME
$114k
Since creation
LIQUIDITY
—
Available to trade
Recent trades
Last 10 fills · live| TIME | SIDE | PRICE | SIZE | VALUE | TRADER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
About this market
ContextThis market will resolve to “Yes”, if Donald Trump’s favorable rating by FiveThirtyEight is higher than his unfavorable rating on March 1, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Trump’s favorable rating must be higher than his unfavorable rating, ties will not qualify. The favorability rating for March 1 will be considered finalized once the next data point is available. If data for March 1 remains unavailable, the nearest previous favorability will be used. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/, specifically the favorability rating indicated by the purple "favorable", and the orange “unfavorable” trend line for the resolution date. The box that 538 uses to calculate the difference using different precision is not relevant for this market - only the difference between favorable and unfavorable ratings that they report up to one decimal point is considered. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the favorability rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market may only resolve to "No" once the first data point after March 1, 2025 is published. If no such data point is available by March 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recent data point prior to March 1, 2025. Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
How trading works
Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.
Resolution
Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.
FAQ
Resolution & tradingHow is this market resolved?+
The market resolves based on the official outcome as verified by the UMA Optimistic Oracle.
When does this market close?+
Trading closes at Mar 1, 2025 · 12:00 PM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.
What are the possible outcomes?+
The possible outcomes are: Yes (0%), No (100%). Each contract pays out $1 if correct, $0 otherwise.
What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+
If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.
How do I trade on Polymarket?+
You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price. All settlements are in USDC.