Will OpenSea launch a token or go public first?

This is a market on whether OpenSea will launch a token or go public first. Having a live token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the OpenSea product or protocol, and substantiated by OpenSea via the official website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. “Going public” in this context can be defined as being publicly traded on a stock exchange, regardless of if they list via IPO, direct listing, or some other method. If they are not listed and publicly trading on a stock exchange, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the launching a token criteria is met first, the market will resolve to “Token”. If the go public criteria is met first, the market will resolve to “Public”. If OpenSea does not release a token or go public by December 31st, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, or does both at the exact same time, the market will resolve to 50/50.

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.